Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting
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Abstract: There is a natural affinity between Bayesian statistical methods and demographic estimation and forecasting. Bayesian methods can cope with complex models, noisy data, and uncertainty, all of which figure prominently in demographic estimation and forecasting. Bayesian methods also…
Disadvantaged or diverse? Child disability and families in Australia
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Abstract: Children may be born with a disability or may acquire one through accident or illness. Approximately 7% of all children or young people aged 0 to 19 years in Australia are estimated to have a disability. Understanding the needs of families with a child with disability informs policy…
Measuring Stopping and Spacing in Fertility Transitions: A Regression Approach
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Abstract: A very influential model of the Demographic Transition was based on the conclusion that fertility decline in Europe was due to “stopping” (terminating childbearing at younger ages) rather than “spacing” (increasing the time between births). This interpretation had important…
From Data Scarcity to Data Abundance: The Role of Demographic Models in Historical Demography
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Abstract: Historical demography is in the midst of a transition from a data-poor to a data-rich environment. Previous generations relied on demographic models to squeeze as much information as possible from the small amounts of data available. Today we live in a new era of…
Marriage squeeze of minority populations in Yunnan
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Long-term inequalities in male to female sex ratios have led to a surplus of men and subsequent marriage market imbalances in China. This has been further complicated by the practice of brides marrying upward in social class, which has disproportionally affected lowest-class men in rural areas. The…
Interesting enigmas in the demography of fertility: examples from Switzerland
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Demography is about good statistics, but should we believe the numbers we produce? For instance, do these puzzles have good explanations? If an average woman in Switzerland goes through her full reproductive life when the average fertility rate (TFR) is 1.5, how does she end up with an average of…