Humankind has a natural desire to survive. This is true for individuals, families, lineages and a population as whole. Accordingly, many people had hoped that their descendent groups or lineages could survive forever; but we know that many such lineage populations have become extinct during the long history. Although people living in contemporary world have all descended from our common ancestors who lived millions of years ago, many of those who had survived in the past were not able to carry their family or lineage line to the future generation.
We know little about the survival of lineage populations and population dynamics in the lineages in the past. For example, suppose 1,000 individuals and their spouses started their lineages 500 years ago, how many of these lineages have extended for more than ten generations or survived to present? What was the chance of survival for a certain number of generations? What kinds of demographic conditions contributed to the extinction or continuation of lineage populations? To what extent fertility, mortality and marriage patterns and speed of population growth varied among the surviving lineage populations?
In this study, we will use CAMSIM, a stochastic computer micro-simulation system, to examine these questions. CAMSIM has been developed by James Smith and Jim Oeppen. It applies an ego-centric approach in simulating the type and number of kin available to a group of individuals that may be seen as a randomly selected sample from a birth cohort. The approach can also be used to simulate many lineage populations that descended from the ‘founders’ of these lineages. This system has already been used successfully in about twenty computer micro-simulation studies.
In this study, input parameters that are close to the demographic conditions existing in pre-transition China are compiled and entered in the system. The system is then used to simulate 3000 male egos and their descendants of ten generations (the total number of simulated individuals is more than 10 million). Following that, the simulated lineage populations are analysed according to their survival status, and their demographic differentials are examined. The study also addresses a number of issues that are closely related to the survival of lineage populations in the past.
Professor Zhongwei Zhao, Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute, Research School of Social Sciences.
Dr Robert Attenborough, School of Archaeology & Anthropology, Research School of Humanities & the Arts.