In our paper, we present a methodology to infer the age and sex profiles of net migration. This research supports the United Nations Population Division’s estimation and population projection procedures for producing the World Population Prospects (WPP). Age and sex profiles of net migration are required as inputs into demographic accounting models for population estimation and projection. However, most countries in the world do not directly measure migration and residual methods for inferring the patterns have proven inadequate, due to errors in the measures of populations, births and deaths. As net migration does not exhibit regularities across age and sex, we developed a strategy to first estimate flows of immigration and emigration by age and sex, which do exhibit regularities. Differences from these estimates are then calculated to obtain net international migration by age and sex. Based on empirical tests, using data from Sweden, South Korea, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, the methodology shows great promise for overcoming a major data limitation countries around the world. Further, we apply the model to countries where the age and sex patterns of net migration are unknown and show the results. The paper ends with a discussion of next steps and further extensions.

Professor James Raymer is Professor of Demography in the ANU School of Demography.

Join Zoom meeting: https://anu.zoom.us/j/89587321433?pwd=MzhpUU1MRnRaNHovL0RTejJMeWpHUT09
Meeting ID: 895 8732 1433 Password: 306745
Join by Skype: https://anu.zoom.us/skype/89587321433