After two decades of population control policy, Iran’s parliament has just ratified a law to introduce a pronatalist policy. Recent population policy debates have been based on the assumptions of sharp fertility decline, regional imbalances in population growth, and rapid ageing in the future. However, no comprehensive study has been undertaken to examine these assumptions. This paper presents the levels, trends, and patterns of fertility using the own children method applying to the 2010 DHS and 2011 census in Iran. First, fertility levels and trends during 1997-2011 are illustrated. Second, provincial fertility levels by rural and urban areas are studied and compared with the national level. The results are also compared with those obtained from the 1986, 1996 and 2006 censuses. Our results indicate that most of the provinces are experiencing below replacement fertility and provincial-level differences have narrowed significantly. However, the total fertility in Iran has been stable around 1.8 in recent years. Future perspectives of fertility and its policy implications are discussed.
Short biography
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi is Future Fellow at the Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute (ADSRI), ANU; and Professor (on leave), Department of Demography of the University of Tehran. Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi is a Research Fellow, ADSRI, ANU, and Peter McDonald, is Director and Professor at the ADSRI, ANU. The presenters have had a long collaborative research on Iran’s fertility decline. Their 2009 Springer book on the Fertility Transition Iran won the World Prize for the Best Book of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Selected joint populations
Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., P. McDonald, and Hosseini-Chavoshi, M. 2009, The Fertility Transition in Iran: Revolution and Reproduction, Springer, Dordrecht.
Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., S. P. Morgan, M. Hosseini-Chavoshi, and P. McDonald, 2009, Family change and continuity in Iran: Birth control use before first pregnancy, Journal of Marriage and Family, 71: 1309-1324.
Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., McDonald, P. & M. Hosseini-Chavoshi, 2008, Modernization and the cultural practice of consanguineous marriage: Case study in four province of Iran, Journal of Biosocial Science, 40(6): 911-933.
Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., and P. McDonald, 2007, The path to below –replacement fertility in Iran, Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 22(2): 91-112.
Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Glazebrook, D., and McDonald, P., 2012, Socio-demographic and psychological aspects of abortion in Iran, International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics, 118 Suppl 2:S172-177.
Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., McDonald, P. and MJ. Abbasi-Shavazi, 2006, The Iranian Fertility Decline, 1981-1999: an Application of the Synthetic Parity Progression Ratio Method, Population, 61(5-6): 701-718
McDonald, P. and Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. 2007, ‘The place of religion in the Iranian fertility transition’, in H. James (ed.), Civil Society, Religion and Global Governance. Routledge, New York, pp. 213-218.