Parental imprisonment as a risk factor for cardiovascular and metabolic disease in adolescent and adult offspring

Parental imprisonment is linked with child health in later life. This presentation based on a study published in SSM – Population Health provides the first prospective cohort analysis and non-U.S. based study examining parental imprisonment and cardiometabolic risk factors in adolescence and adulthood. Methods The study followed 7,223 children born from live, singleton births from 1981-1984 in Brisbane, Australia. Data on parental imprisonment was collected at mother interview when the children were ages 5 and 14. Our sample analyzes offspring with biometric data collected by health professionals, including 3,794 at age 14, 2,136 at age 21, and 1,712 at age 30. Analyses used multivariate linear and logistic regression, and time-varying growth curve models. Results Among female respondents, parental imprisonment at ages ≤5 was associated with higher body-mass index (BMI) at ages 14, 21, and 30; higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at age 30; and increased sedentary hours, larger waist circumference, and odds of a high-risk waist circumference at age 30. Parental imprisonment when the child was aged ≤14 was associated with increased BMI and SBP at age 30 for females. In growth-curve models, parental imprisonment when the child was aged ≤5 and ≤ 14 among females was linked with increased BMI; parental imprisonment when the child was aged ≤5 was associated with increased SBP and DBP. No significant associations were observed for males. Conclusions Using prospective cohort data, our results support research showing that parental imprisonment, particularly in early childhood, is associated with increased BMI, blood pressure, sedentary hours, and waist circumference in females in early adulthood. These findings implicate parental imprisonment as a risk factor for cardiometabolic health issues in later life among females.

Mike Roettger is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Demography at the ANU. He is especially interested in issues related to parental incarceration. He is an internationally recognised expert in the field, and his research has examined adverse long-term outcomes associated with having a parent undergo incarceration. His research has documented adverse outcomes in the U.S. population that include mental and physical health issues, substance abuse, delinquency, and criminal justice involvement.

The Components of Change in Population Growth Rates

The demographic balance equation relates the population growth rate with crude rates of fertility, mortality, and net migration. All these rates refer to changes occurring between two time points, say, t and t + h. However, this fundamental balance equation overlooks the contribution of historical fertility, mortality, and migration in explaining these population counts. Because of this, the balance equation only partially explains a change in growth rate between time t and t + h as it does not include the contribution of historical population trends in shaping the population at time t. The overall population growth rate can also be expressed as the weighted average of age-specific growth rates. In a recent article in Demography, we develop a method to decompose the historical drivers of current population growth by recursively employing the variable-r method on the population's average age-specific growth rates. We illustrate our method by identifying the unique contributions of survival progress, migration change, and fertility decline for current population growth in Denmark, England and Wales, France, and the United States. Our results show that survival progress is mainly having an effect on population growth at older ages, although accounting for indirect historical effects illuminates additional contributions at younger ages. Migration is particularly important in Denmark and England and Wales. Finally, we find that across all populations studied, historical fertility decline plays the largest role in shaping recent reductions in population growth rates.

Vladimir Canudas-Romo is a demographer interested in aspects of formal demography and the longevity revolution. He has made major contributions to the demographic debates on alternative measures of longevity and the development of decomposition methods to better understand these issues. He has received funding for his work from: i) ARC, ii) The USA insurance company, AIG, and iii) the European Research Council. He has advised on mortality-forecasting methods the Social Security Administration in the USA, the Danish pension group, the World Bank and the Australian Government Actuary at Treasury. Vladimir’s international experience is extensive having worked both in Europe and the USA, before moving to the School of Demography at the Australian National University in 2017.

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