Abstract

Population ageing is proceeding inexorably in China, India and Indonesia, though at varying pace. The elderly’s share of total population is increasing more rapidly in China than in India or Indonesia. Between 2015 and 2030, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 9.5 to 16.2 % in China, from 5.5 to 8.2 % in India and from 5.4 to 9.2 % in Indonesia. The number of aged in China is immense, far larger than in India; in 2015 China’s elderly make up over 34 % of the elderly in developing countries, though its population is only 23 % of the developing country total. As time goes on, China is expected to forge well ahead of the developing country group in proportion of elderly, and India and Indonesia are also expected to open some distance from the other developing countries. Interestingly, geographical differences in ageing in the three countries appear to be affected much more by patterns of migration than by differences in fertility and mortality. In all three countries, the rural areas are older than the cities, despite their higher fertility. We conclude by stressing that because of its rapid pace, ageing is of more immediate concern in China than in India or Indonesia, and Chinese planners are certainly alert to the issues involved, but this does not mean that policy decisions can be postponed in the other two countries.