China has over 1.3 billion people, covers 9.6 million square kilometres in area, and has 2844 counties (including districts and county-level-cities). This presentation will focus on the micro-level (county-level) population distribution in China, and includes details that the macro (provincial) level analysis may not offer.

Firstly, based on the 1990, 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses, this paper compares the spatial characteristics and dynamic changes of Chinese county-level population distribution, and tries to find the driving forces for population density dynamic changes (as well as migration). Secondly, based on the data from 2844 counties (rather than the only 31 provinces), this paper quantifies the uneven degree and dynamic changes of population distribution with the Lorenz Curve and Gini-Coefficient. Thirdly, the paper examines and finds that population density in China conforms to the Log-Normal Distribution. It then makes a projection based on the Probability Distribution Function, especially the number and proportion of counties whose population density is within a certain range for the period of 2020-2100.

Yongming Zeng is a PhD candidate from the Population Research Institute at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in China and a visitor to the Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute at ANU. His research has focused on population geography and spatial economics.