The timing, character, and causes of the onset of sustained fertility decline in Victorian England are among the most intractable problems in the demographic and economic history of Victorian England. One reason for this intractability is that accurate data on age-specific and total measures of fertility in marriage are not available and are unlikely to be so in the near future. 

What is required is a relatively simple, easily manipulated method capable of deriving testable estimates of marital fertility from the census enumerator returns that can be applied at the individual parish level as well as communities in large towns and cities. In this seminar I argue that such a method is available but has largely been neglected by historians looking at fertility change in Victorian England. I model the method using data from the census enumerator returns over six censuses 1851-1901 to generate testable measures of total and age-specific marital fertility among women 15-49 years of age and by their occupation status.

The seminar is set out in five parts: part 1 provides an outline of the economic and demographic context of women 15 to 49 years of age resident in Rawtenstall; parts 2 to 4 take us through the three steps used to construct our model estimates and to test their credibility and sensitivity to local influences; and part 5 provides a summary of the main conclusions and comments on the value of the results in expanding our knowledge of the timing, character and possible causes of the onset of sustained fertility decline in Victorian England.

Dr Mac Boot, Associate Professor (Adjunct), Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute.