International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition and quality. In this presentation, a Bayesian model is proposed to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows amongst 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, using data organised by Eurostat. We also incorporate covariate information and information provided by experts on the effects of undercount, measurement and accuracy of data collection systems. The methodology is integrated and produces a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.
Dr James Raymer is a Reader in Demography in the School of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton. He joined the University in 2004 after completing his PhD in the Department of Geography at the University of Colorado at Boulder, United States. His main research interests are migration and population modelling in the context of inadequate or missing data. He currently leads the dynamic population modelling theme within the Centre for Population Change and is the Principal Investigator of a multinational project on estimating international migration flows in Europe. He has also worked closely with the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics to improve their internal and international migration statistics.