Over the 21st century, total fertility rate (TFR) trends across many countries have followed remarkably similar trajectories — rising until around 2008 and declining since at the fastest rate observed since the 1970s. These parallel patterns challenge traditional theories that link fertility change to national economic or social contexts.

This presentation, forming part of Tim’s PhD confirmation of candidature, explores conceptual and empirical approaches to understanding why fertility has followed transnational dynamics in recent decades. It outlines methods for assessing the role of economic pressures — such as housing affordability and stock availability — alongside shifts in gender relations and the redefinition of emerging adulthood.

Tim Carlton is a PhD candidate in the School of Demography at ANU, building on extensive experience in demographic analysis and policy across state and federal governments over the past 30 years. His current research focuses on the drivers of fertility change in the 21st century, with his first paper currently under peer review. Within the School, Tim is also known for his innovative 3D demographic data visualisation sculptures that bring population data to life.

Join Zoom Meeting: https://anu.zoom.us/j/83873550469?pwd=u5NmcuzrPEp4euXUkpxdW6n3VaywlW.1

Meeting ID: 838 7355 0469

Password: 232267