In societies like Iran, where childbearing is confined to marriage, the proportion of individuals who marry, the timing of marriage, and birth intervals are key determinants of fertility. Iran's fertility decline has been shaped by a unique pattern of long interbirth intervals and the strong interdependence between marriage and first birth.

In response to a rapid fertility to very low level, the Iranian government introduced a pronatalist policy, combining incentives and restrictions to encourage higher fertility. A major initiative was the 2021 Law on Family Support and Population Rejuvenation, which aimed to increase marriage rates and childbearing.  

This study examines whether these policy incentives have influenced marriage timing and subsequent birth internals.  Using data from registered births, marriages, and other available sources, we analyse fertility trends in the context of recent pronatalist policies.  Findings indicate that the 2021 population law overlooked existing fertility trends and the growing imbalance in the marriage market, which led to a marriage boom - highlighting a mismatch between policy goals and demographic realities. Additionally, the 2019 economic downturn, exacerbated by sanctions, contributed to the recent fertility decline.  

Paradoxically, while the rise in marriages has been linked to marriage loans provided to newlyweds, financial pressures associated with loan repayment have led to delayed first births, ultimately counteracting the intended pronatalist effect. We conclude that Iran's population policy lacks a rigorous understanding of fertility behaviors and that the current incentives do not align with the aspirations and values of the younger generation.  Furthermore, negative tempo effects of nuptiality on childbearing are expected in the coming years, underscoring the need for more evidenced-based policy interventions.  

This presentation is drawn from joint research by Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi, Peter McDonald and Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi.

Bio

Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi currently holds honorary academic positions at the ANU School of Demography and the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health. Until recently, she was an academic member of the Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research at the University of Melbourne (2016-2024). Her current joint research with Prof. Peter McDonald focuses on fertility trends and birth forecasting, examining the role of education, marriage, and migration in shaping the future of fertility and population dynamics in Australia and Iran.

She is also collaborating with Prof. Md Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi on a research project investigating the fertility patterns of Muslim migrants in Europe and Australia. Before joining the University of Melbourne, Meimanat spent eight years at the ANU’s former School of Demography and Crawford School of Public Policy, where she researched fertility regulation, abortion, consanguinity,  population policies in Iran, and ageing in Australia.