Please note that this seminar will feature two different presentations on fertility-related topics

Title (1) Relationship History and Multi-Partner Fertility: Influences on Parent-Child Contact in Later Life

Increasing relationship dissolution and repartnering rates mean that adults are less likely than ever to have parents who are still in a relationship with each other. This research considers how a child’s place in the parent’s relationship history affects intergenerational contact between adult children and parents. Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) panel study, the analysis focuses on older parents with at least one adult child aged 18 or over. We constructed relationship histories for the parents, and measure frequency of contact between the parent and each child, using multi-level modelling.

Results show that relationship history is related to parent-child contact. For fathers, a significant decrease in contact frequency with children is observed if the father has repartnered, and this decrease is greater if additional children are born in subsequent relationships. Contact is also lower if the child was young at time of separation. For mothers, subsequent relationships also impact on frequency of contact with children but to a lesser extent. Our results suggest that the configuration of a parent’s relationship history plays a pivotal role in shaping the frequency of contact with adult children, particularly for fathers. These insights contribute to a broader understanding of intergenerational relationships within the context of evolving family structures.

Edith Gray is Professor at the School of Demography, ANU, who specializes in family demography, particularly childbearing in high-income countries. She has been a Chief Investigator on six ARC Discovery Projects and offers research expertise through government and NGO consultancies. Edith is a Council member of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and the Asian Population Association, and is the National Convenor of the 2025 International Population Conference in Brisbane. Edith is also the co-Director of the Population Lab (Poplab), launching Tuesday 22 October 2024.

Title (2) The Third Demographic Transition? The Technological-Relational Revolution and the Fertility Declines of the 21^st Century

The ongoing declines in the total fertility rate (TFR) that are occurring since 2008 across many high-income countries remain poorly understood. We offer a novel perspective on fertility change in the 21^st century by contextualizing the declines considering the revolutionary technological changes in human communicating and relating that occurred simultaneously. Leaning on human basic psychological need theory, we theorize that pathways to fulfil the human need to relate have been massively altered in the last two decades, which is likely contributing to the fertility declines.

Using macro-level data from various sources and fixed-effects panel regression models, we test if changes in the percentage of people using the internet daily predicts changes the TFR since 2003. Indeed, our analyses indicate a strong curvilinear association between the proportion of people using the internet daily and the TFR, net of other factors such as housing affordability, child care coverage, or economic factors. While increases in daily internet usage of up to 55% are associated with a slight increase in the TFR from 1.61 to 1.63, further increases predict a steep linear TFR-decline. When 95% of the population engage in daily internet usage, a TFR of 1.45 is predicted. Potential mechanisms underlying this macro-level link between daily internet usage and the total fertility rate will be discussed.

Natalie Nitsche is Associate Professor at the School of Demography, ANU. Her research focuses on fertility, family dynamics, and gender inequalities and has been supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Research Executive Agency (REA), the Austrian Research Fund (FWF), and the German Science Foundation (DFG). Before joining the ANU, she worked at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany and the Vienna Institute of Demography in Austria.

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