It is a common observation that demography, as a field of inquiry, is weak on theory. For many researchers this is not a serious problem, but for those looking for a scientific explanation of how national populations operate as ‘enduring collectivities’ (Samuel Preston), it is. This presentation seeks to provide a brief assessment of the situation and, more importantly, propose a way forward. The proposal identifies three distinct components of demographic theory building. I argue that each component is essential to any satisfactory explanation of how enduring populations are structured, maintained and change. Furthermore, while any given piece of research might necessarily focus on a single component, satisfactory explanation depends on our developing these components in concert.

Adrian Hayes is a demographer and sociologist who has combined an active academic career with work in international development, especially in Asia. His early education was in England, followed by graduate studies in the US at Brown University and a postdoc at the University of Michigan. He has taught population studies and sociology at leading universities in the US, Canada, Australia, China and Nepal, and has been associated intermittently for three decades with The Australian National University. At present he is an Honorary Associate Professor in the ANU School of Demography. He recently edited, with Professor Zhongwei Zhao, the Routledge Handbook of Asian Demography, and his current research interests are in population, climate change and sustainable development, and in synergies between social theory and demography.