This paper outlines the design of a revised model for projecting the ethnic group populations of local authorities. A crucial new element is a set of consultations with the UK National Statistical Offices, which will continue throughout the project and with Local Authorities (LA), Local Enterprise Partnerships, Public Health England, selected Businesses and Think Tanks.

The projection design differs in several ways from previous work (www.ethpop.org). The NewETHPOP projection model covers the whole UK using LAs as spatial zones, rather than being confined to English LAs and the other Home Countries. The projections use a 12 group ethnic classification, harmonised between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses and across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. We add a native/foreign born classification to the ethnicity classification, because this distinction is significant in fertility and mortality. The conceptual basis of the projection model is switched from the transition approach to demographic change, linked to census migration, to the movement approach which is more general and used by the National Statistical Offices. Our estimation of the ethnic specific components of change by LA will be informed by extending to ethnic groups the official scheme for reconciling population change to the results of both the 2001 and 2011 censuses. To inform assumptions for the projections we will use a 14 year time series from 2001 to 2014 and employ time series models along with expert judgement to design assumptions. We will fully explore the alternative approaches to modelling international migration in a set of migration (model) variants. The set of projections we implement will be more systematic than previously. We will carry out a principal projection that is 'constrained' (as opposed to 'aligned') to the national and sub-national population projections of the national statistical offices. We will also propose an alternative main projection based on different assumptions. This projection will be the starting point for a probabilistic analysis of future ethnic populations. Also planned are a set of impact scenario projections, designed to estimate the impact of component assumptions and of the demographic potential of each group’s current age structure. Our projections will conclude with a set of sensitivity scenarios to ascertain the differences between ethnicity included and ethnicity free projections.

Philip Rees is Professor Emeritus at the School of Geography, University of Leeds, United Kingdom.